Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 540 Points
|
Tied for 567th
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Valentina Shevchenko, DEC Shevchenko would be well-advised to lean on her wrestling, where she'll have the biggest advantage over Grasso. I don't see Shevchenko changing her gameplan at this point, though. And it's her very predictability that made her vulnerable to Grasso when they last met.
Holland vs. Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R2 I switched my pick. I think Della Maddalena's just too good of a boxer. I still hope Holland pulls this off, though. He's one of my favorite fighters.
Zellhuber vs. Giagos Daniel Zellhuber, DEC This is Zellhuber's decision to lose. I don't think he hits hard enough to TKO Giagos. And I don't think Giagos's wrestling is good enough, versus Zellhuber's TDD, to shake the narrative of Zellhuber's striking dominance.
Cortez vs. Jasduvicius Tracy Cortez, DEC Cortez's boxing movement and TDs will help her to dominate Jasduvicius for the decision win.
"To cross an ocean, you must love the ocean, before you love the far shore. - Suzanne Buffam"
Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 530 Points
|
Tied for 670th
You're a legend of picking fights. Who would've known the genius was the Duck all along? You wont be laughed at now when you tell the forum to fade heavy WMMA favorites.
"I could have hidden in the mountains or gone to Thailand to hide as many do and are not tested, but I preferred to take the risk and believe I was clean and fit to fight." - Joilton Lutterbach
Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 405 Points
|
Tied for 3381st
test
"how bout u go an **** off my page then u peice of **** u think we need a stupid ****witt like u telling us about looking good who the **** are u take your worthless advice and get the **** out of here"
Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points
|
Tied for 3674th
Cortez vs. Jasudavicius Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC Can Jasudavicius have a small advantage here being the bigger woman since both have their strenght in the wrestling/h
Campbell vs. Reyes Charlie Campbell, TKO, R2 Im sorry but who the f are these guys. Gonna lean on the fav and MMA-math.
Knutsson vs. Mann Josefine Knutsson, TKO, R2 JLK coming in hot here, I guess she really wants to put on a performance now since the critique from Big D after DWCS. Guessing Mann is due for another head kick. That left kick from Knutsson looked good last time and against an even shorter opponent. Lets go Sweden!
Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 555 Points
|
Tied for 372nd
Padilla vs. Nelson Fernando Padilla, TKO, R2 Fernando won his UFC debut earlier this year, comign off of a near two year lay-off to knockout Julian Erosa in round one. He's a huge featherweight with a seemingly well rounded finishing game. His recent wins have come by TKO, but he's also got quite a few submissions. Contrast that to the rugged Canadian Kyle Nelson, who struggled to maintain success in the UFC until recently, taking Choi Doo Ho to a draw and upsetting the formerly undefeated Blake Bilder. Despite his up-and-down UFC career, he's almost always competitive and finally has some somewhat decent momentum on his side. He's got more one punch power and could be the better offensive wrestler. I think Padilla is the most likely winner, but it remains to be seen how he performs in the UFC past the first few minutes. Nelson has never been stopped in the first round, so Padilla may have to fight in deep waters. I'm still pretty confident in Padilla's chances, but Nelson has been a parlay killer for me one too many times. Probably going to pass on this one, betting-wise, but yeah, taking Padilla by stoppage.
Godinez vs. Reed Lupita Godinez, DEC Reed a pretty big underdog on this card, and for good reason. While she does hold the slight edge in striking, the volume and wrestling of Godinez should pose many problems for her. Reed has been stopped in all of her losses, and has historically been susceptible to submission later in the fight. Even if she can land on Godinez, the optics of being outlanded and out wrestled don't paint a good picture. Taking Godinez to beat the 3rd biggest underdog on the card, most likely by decision but there's a chance she could get a sub on a tired Reed.
Kopylov vs. Fremd Roman Kopylov, TKO, R3 I've seeing a lot of people fading Fremd, and a smaller contingent of people who are saying how everyone picking Kopylov is an idiot. I'm sort of in the middle. I recognize Josh Fremd is a big ass middleweight who has shown many times that he's capable of dragging guys into deep waters. Kopylov has also shown that he's capable of winning late against opponents, but where Fremd has used his size and clinch wrestling to do his best work as of late, Kopylov breaks guys down with pressure and volume. I'm just really feeling Kopylov here, despite the few red flags that some people have fixated on. Kopylov does get hit a lot, but neither man has particularly good striking defense stats; Kopylov absorbs twice as many strikes, but he also doubles the output of Fremd while having slightly better defense. Fremd is the better wrestler and could definitely hunt for a sub, but Kopylov boasts a 90% TDD. We saw him stuff all three takedowns against Soriano, who is a comperable wrestler to someone like Fremd, albeit with a much different frame. Fremd will probably have the power advantage, and he has finished a lot of opponents outside of the UFC. I wouldn't be surprised if he was able to rock Kopylov once or twice, but Kopylov is very durable and has never been stopped with strikes. We've seen Fremd employ a lot more grappling in his UFC career, so I have some doubts about him trying to engage a bunch on the feet. Both men have the tendency to finish fights late, with Kopylov finishing 9 of his 11 wins after the first round, and Fremd having 5 of 8 after the first round, but I think Kopylov has looked more impressive down the stretch. When push comes to shove, Kopylov is more durable, has solid takedown defense and is a more technical striker. I really think Kopylov is the pick here, for me. I'm willing to accept the risk of seeing him get clinched for three rounds, but I think he'll be able to shut down the wrestling and hurt Fremd on the back end. Probably gonna add Kopylov over 1.5 into a parlay.
Cháirez vs. Lacerda Edgar Cháirez, SUB, R2 One of those "not a lot to say about this one" kinds of fights. For me, at least. Both men come out fast and have a lot of finishes to prove that, but Chairez seperates himself from Lacerda by not being finished in his last five fights. Lacerda could certainly find a big shot or something, but he's basically a one round fighter. Chairez was able to offer some decent opposition in defeat against Tatsuro Taira, which says a lot more to me than Lacerda blowing his wad against CJ Vergara, only to get demolished in the second. Could see either man getting an early win, but I think Chairez is the smarter pick. Maybe the first round ends up being close, only for him to finish a gassed Lacerda in the second. Betting wise, definitely take the under here.
Cortez vs. Jasudavicius Tracy Cortez, DEC "Two side of the same coin" type of fight. Two talented, up-and-coming women with well rounded games, who operate in different ways. Tracy Cortez is an athletic wrestler with some pretty nasty GnP, especially with her elbows, and on the feet, has smooth footwork and boxing. On the other side is Jasmine Jasudavicius, who uses her big frame and aggressive pace to rough opponents up in the clinch and her length to land shots at range. This fight feels like a true pick em', to me. Tracy Cortez is an athletic, talented woman and has the tools to win everywhere, but her inactivity is concerning. Her last fight was over a year ago, and she had been shelved with an injury for over a year prior to that. Jasmine has been much more active, going 2-1 in just over a year, and has won many of her fights in the UFC as an underdog. So she's not a stranger to upsetting the favorite. Cortez, statistically, is the more accurate striker by over 10%, while slightly edging Jasmine in takedown accuracy and submissions attempted. Jasmine has a slightly higher TDD %, but otherwise, Cortez is leading on most of the stats. In fact, Jasmine absorbs strikes at over 2x the rate of Cortez. We saw Miranda Maverick find a lot of success with strikes against Jasmine, and I think Tracy has much better footwork/striking than Miranda. Jasmine could certainly get Cortez down, as was the case for Melissa Gatto against Cortez, but she lacks the unique submission threat that Gatto possesses. Cortez was also able to consistently out scramble Gatto, despite being taken down. All in all, Jasudavicius will have opportunities to outwork Tracy, and that could benefit her on the optics, but I think Cortez should have no issue finding Jasudavicius on the feet. I also don't think Cortez will be lost off of her back, and she should be able to win the scrambles when she needs to. On paper, Tracy is the better, cleaner fighter. I'm going to take Tracy by decision, despite the ring rust and size disadvantage, but I will probably be putting some money on Jazzy, as well.
Campbell vs. Reyes Charlie Campbell, TKO, R1 This is a weird one. Alex Reyes, brother of former UFC title challenger Dominick Reyes, returns to the octagon for the first time in six years. He was sidelined with a severe spinal infection, due to a botched stem cell injection, that was so bad, many doctors didn't even think he'd be able to walk again. Before that, his lone UFC appearance consisted of getting blown away by Mike Perry on short-notice. Since then, he's managed to make a recovery, enough to be able to fight in the UFC again. He takes on another Contender Series alumni in Charlie Campbell, who was stopped by Scottland's Chris Duncan in his lone trip to the UFC Apex. My initial thought is that I don't think I can really see a winning performance coming from Reyes- on top of the critical injury he sustained and the extreme layoff; he's nearly 37 years old. Compare that to the 28 year old Campbell, who's fought five times in the last two years, stopping all of his opponents. Plus, his loss to Duncan has aged better now that we've seen Chris in the UFC-- He had Duncan badly hurt up until getting knocked out with a counter. Unless Reyes can come back and prove that he's not only recovered from his injury, but managed to remain a capable mixed martial artist after all of this time away, I think it's gonna be a short night for him. Charlie Campbell by early KO.
Knutsson vs. Mann Josefine Knutsson, DEC Another UFC card, another curtain jerking favorite likely to open the show with a win. Josefine Knutsson is a former pro kickboxer who is now 6-0 in MMA. She went 2-0 on the Contender Series, including a victory in her last fight. Obviously her stand up is legit, employing some great kicks at range and landing knees/elbows in the clinch. Her TDD is solid, boasting a 100% rate on DWCS, and is a good scrambler. She's even shown flashes of her own wrestling, scoring five takedowns between those two Contender Series victories. Her opponent is Marnic Mann, who is also a DWCS veteran- albeit losing by KO in her sole appearance. On the regional circuit, she's scored a few stoppages, including a KO in under a minute and a triangle off of her back in the LFA. Right of the bat, I'm taking Knutsson; she's just far more reliable over the course of 15 mins, while Mann will carry a finishing threat into this fight, Knutsson has the tools to negate her both at range and in tight. I don't think Mann has the wrestling to hold Knutsson down, nor do I think she has the boxing to find her chin in an exchange. I do worry Knutsson could struggle with the boxing range, as she seems more comfortable either outside or in the clinch, but Mann hasn't really proven she can deploy that KO power against UFC level fighters. All in all, I believe Knutsson will be able to wear down Mann with clinch striking and consistenyly land flurries that back Mann up. There's a little value on Knutsson ITD or in round two, but otherwise, I think taking her by decision at -105 is a good call.
Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points
|
Tied for 3674th
Grasso vs. Shevchenko II Valentina Shevchenko, TKO, R2 It cant happen again right? Sheva with the elbows from crucifix, lets go!
Holland vs. Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena, TKO, R2 I mean who is not looking forward to this banger? Holland is tough to put out but gonna go with JDM getting that done here. Letdown of the night though would be Holland taking JDM down and subbing him though, haha.
Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1 Rosas **** the bed last time but I guess they are setting him up for a good one here? Alaskan fight promotions are notorious for mismatches as I understand so cant trust that record of Mitchell and also making a comeback this year after a loong layoff.
Zellhuber vs. Giagos Christos Giagos, SUB, R2 Golden boy came in with some hype the first time and really let me down but showed up last time. Question is though how he will handle the grappling of Giagos? Gonna take a chance on the vet Giagos here getting it done but wont be surprised if Zellhuber can stuff the td's and light him up on the feet. He just has to prove it since I cant trust him for real after our first encounter.
Padilla vs. Nelson Fernando Padilla, TKO, R2 Cant say I know the fellas too well but going with the young gun getting it done in the 2nd, showing them hands.
Godinez vs. Reed Lupita Godinez, DEC Loopy should be able to outwrestle Reed, stack up some damage on the ground and get a UD.
Kopylov vs. Fremd Roman Kopylov, TKO, R1 Please dear Mr Kopylov give us another one like last time. That headkick was just too good!
Cháirez vs. Lacerda Edgar Cháirez, TKO, R2 Lacerda is a wild man and fun to watch but I guess he usually is too wild for his own good. So Mr Chairez can get the GnP finish in the second when Lacerda is fading and is putting himself in to dangerous positions.
Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 530 Points
|
Tied for 670th
I'm tempted to switch my pick to Lacerda, just to have 1 dog pick this card. I'm not convinced Chairez is that much better, it's more a question of the dumpsterfire gas tank and fight IQ displayed by Lacerda to date.
So far I bet on this fight to start round 2 (+110). Seems equitable for a flyweight fight. Chairez doesn't fire himself out of a rocket like Lacerda does round 1.
"I could have hidden in the mountains or gone to Thailand to hide as many do and are not tested, but I preferred to take the risk and believe I was clean and fit to fight." - Joilton Lutterbach
